1st Quarter 2011 Transaction Activity

The first quarter of 2011 is over.  From a sales standpoint how well did we do compared to previous years?  Shown below is the criteria we used to tabulate the results:

• Sales information from the CoStar Group database
• Transactions closed between January 1st and March 31st
• Investment transactions only (no owner occupied)
• Property types - apartments, office, flex, industrial, retail, mixed use & specialty use
• Transactions with sales prices of $1 million or larger
• Arms length transactions only
• Transactions located between Kelso, WA and Eugene, OR including Bend

Based on this criteria the chart shown below compares the sales activity for the 1st quarter for each of the last five years:

 
As you can see, the sale activity for the first quarter of 2011 increased significantly over 2010 but fell well below previous years.  The good news is that if this trend continues for the rest of this year, 2010 will have been the bottom of the market with a good possibility of improving sales activity going forward.   


We then analyzed the 45 sales transactions for the first quarter by property type.

As you can see apartments still are the most favored property type with 42 percent of the sales in the first quarter followed by retail.  Most of the retail sales were fast food franchises or single tenant buildings. 

Of the 45 sales transactions, only 35 identified the broker representation and only 38 identified the lending source used.  The remaining transactions did not provide sufficient information to determine the lender or if brokers were involved in the transactions.

Another way of looking at it, there were 45 paydays for all of the real estate brokers in the first quarter (17 x 2 = 34 + 7 +4 = 45).  So if you know how many of these transactions you were involved in, you can determine your market share. 

Shown below are the first quarter lending sources for the 38 sales transactions that a lender was identified.

Almost half of all sales transactions in the first quarter did not need new financing.  These results also explode the myth that life companies are back in the market.   After you take away the all cash buyers and assumed loans only 20 loans were placed in the first quarter, most of these from banks.  This paltry number of loans for the first quarter does not bode well for the mortgage brokerage community but hopefully we are on an improving trend.  I look forward to seeing how this quarter turns out.  Keep your fingers crossed.

What Impact Will Inflation Have on Commercial Real Estate?

After decades of little or no inflation there is mounting evidence that the Federal Reserve's Quantatitive Easing program is beginning to take its toll on the value of the dollar.  Shown below are some of these indicators:

• The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output, is up 5.6% for the twelve months ending February 2011.
• Commodity prices are rising in relation to the dollar.  The price of gold hit an all time high earlier this week before settling down a bit.  Silver prices continue to soar hitting a 31 year high.  So far this year silver has gained 33% in value.
• A recent Deloitte Consulting poll indicated that 74% of those polled believe their spending will slow due to rising prices they are currently experiencing.

So what impact will inflation have on commercial real estate?  In the short-term the real question is what impact will the threat of inflation have on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates?  An increase in the federal funds rate would ease the concerns of those who fear inflation but it would likely have a detrimental impact on the fragile U.S. economy which is just beginning to show signs of recovery.  It's a delicate balance between these two policy positions.

In the long run, modest inflation would be a great benefit to commercial real estate, as long as it happens gradually so that the market can make the necessary adjustments along the way.  Real estate over the long run has been an excellent inflation hedge and it should be the same this time around too.  Over time, with modest inflation those commercial real estate investors who are currently upside down on their investment portfolio could gradually become whole again. 

My greatest fear is what happens in June when the Federal Reserve ends its own bond purchase program known as quantitative easing.  Who will fill the gap in buying U.S. Treasuries?  If no one steps in to the fill the void what will happen to interest rates?  Doesn't the law of supply and demand require that interest rates have to increase?  And more importantly how quickly will they rise and how dramatically?

Those are the questions that are currently being debated.  Surprisingly there is no clear consensus among the pundits.  We'll have to watch and see.  Stay tuned.  It's going to be fascinating to watch! 

Sources: PIMCO bets against U.S. government debt, Reuters, April 11, 2011; Don't Believe the Inflation Fear-Mongers, The Mark, April 12, 2011; Inflation Not a Threat? Most Consumers Aren't So Sure; CNBC.com, April 12, 2011; Gold Price Sinks After Hitting Ne High at $1,478, Gold Alert, April 11, 2011; Producer Price Indexes - February 2011, Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 16, 2011.

The Six Immutable Laws of Real Estate Investing

James Montier, the well known author of "The Little Book of Behavioral Investing" recently wrote an article called "The Seven Immutable Laws of Investing."  In this article he identifies seven principles for sensible investing in the stock or bond markets.  I was intrigued by the title so I read the article and somewhere along the way I realized that 6 of these 7 "immutable laws of investing" also apply to investing in commercial real estate.  So I thought what the heck, maybe I should take a stab at writing an article on the "Six Immutable Laws of Real Estate Investing."  So here goes:

1. Always insist on a margin of safety.  In other words the goal is not to buy at fair market value but to purchase with a margin of safety as property performance, market conditions, etc. may not live up to expectations.  In our world of real estate this means finding properties that are under performing the market but with a change in ownership will turn the property's performance around. 
2. This time is never different.  The four most dangerous words in investing - "this time is different."  The dot.com bubble that occurred about ten years ago is a perfect example.  Investors were buying stock in companies that hadn't turned a profit on the expectation that they would be the next Google, or Amazon.com.  Stock prices soared and even though it made no logical sense the argument that was bandied about was, "this time is different."  The same was true of real estate.  How many believed that house prices could never go down?  In both examples a speculative fever resulted in a bubble causing stocks and house prices to plummet in value.  Whenever someone starts saying this time its different, get out of that investment as quickly as you can.
3. Be Patient and Wait for the Fat Pitch.  As Mr. Montier states in his article, "Patience is integral to any value-based approach on many levels... However patience is in rare supply."  In commercial real estate there is a time to wait and there is a time to act.  When things go bad, like they have for the last three years the tendency is to dump our real estate holdings as quickly as we can when the prudent thing to do is wait.  Most investors suffer from an "action bias" - a desire to do something.  But often times the best thing to do is to stand at the plate and wait for the fat pitch.     
4. Be Contrarian.  Humans are prone to the herd instinct.  When everyone is buying they buy; when everyone is selling they sell.  Last year the value of BP's stock plummeted due to the gulf oil crisis.  BP stockholders were dumping their stock and only a few contrarians were buying.  Less than a year later those that fought the urge to follow the herd have made a handsome profit while those who sold lost money.  Now's the time to be buying commercial real estate, especially those that have been hardest hit - office, retail and industrial.  Years from now we will realize that that there were bargains to be purchased in 2011.  Or we can go along with the herd and sit on the sidelines.
5. Be Leery of Leverage.  I really shouldn't have to say much of anything on this topic.  In many instances those owners with properties that were over leaveraged have paid the ultimate price - the loss of their properties.  Those homeowners who used their homes as ATM machines learned the hard way too.  Three years after the the collapse of the housing bubble about 1 in 4 homeowners have no equity in their homes.
6. Never Invest In Something You Don't Understand.  This is just plain old common sense.  It's not uncommon for for me to talk with real estate investors that are clueless about their real estate holdings which puts them at the mercy of their real estate advisors.  Many times these advisors have a different agenda than the owner but the owner not knowing the fundamentals of commercial real estate is unaware of the conflict of interest.  It's a simple truth: If you don't understand the investment concept, then you shouldn't be investing in it.

I personally believe that now is the time to be investing in commercial real estate as long as you follow these six fundamental principles.  Cap rates have risen significantly, the frothiness of the market has long since disappeared and  interest rates are low... at least for the time being.  Or you can be a part of the herd that sits on the sidelines waiting for a better day, a day that will likely never come.  

Bill Gross Thumbs Nose at Bond Market

Last week Bill Gross, who runs the world's largest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., sold all government related U.S. debt from PIMCO's $237 billion Total Return Fund.  You may be thinking, "Why is this tidbit of news important to us?"  Good question.  When someone who is as knowledgeable about the bond market as Mr. Gross decides to get out of U.S. bonds there's a good chance that something signficant is about to happen.  Gross is betting that the discontinuation of the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing program (QE2) in June will have a negative overall impact on the bond market. 

Let's back up for a minute and explain some things.  QE2 is the Federal Reserve program of buying U.S. government debt instruments for the purpose of stimulating the economy.  In a period of only 28 months the Federal Reserve has become the largest owner of U.S. Treasury Bonds ($972 billion as of December) surpassing both China and Japan who took decades to accumulate their bond holdings.  Yesterday, Mr. Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve confirmed that the Fed will discontinue QE2 as planned by the end of June.

Bill Gross wonders when the Fed stops buying bonds who will take their place?  The Federal Reserve is currently buying $75 billion in U.S. bonds a month.  That's a huge amount.  So what will be the impact when the Fed stops buying?  It all goes back to the law of supply and demand.  If the supply of U.S. treasuries remains the same but the #1 buyer of bonds is no longer buying, in order to get others to absorb the excess supply the market will demand a higher rate of return.  It's as simple as that.  Gross believes that the current interest rate on 10 year treasuries is at least 100 basis points below the historical average.

If Mr. Gross is correct the logical result will be a significant rise in interest rates and it should happen before the end of this year.  If true this could have a dramatic impact on the commercial real estate market.  Rising rates would require a re-adjustment in cap rates upward to offset the decline in investment returns due to higher interest rates.   

Years ago there was a TV ad by investment banking firm E.F. Hutton.  The ad shows an E.F. Hutton fiancial advisor about to give confidential investment advice to his client in a crowded, noisy room.  Before the advisor speaks the crowd stops talking and leans their ear to hear what he has to say.  The ad ends with the slogan, "When E.F. Hutton speaks people listen."  Mr. Gross has just spoken and his actions speak loud and clear.  Are we wise enough to follow his lead is the only question?  
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On a totally different note, treasury rates have plunged in the last few days.  The 10 Year Treasury rate at this moment is 3.20%, down 55 basis points since January.  On the surface this flies in the face of what is being predicted by Mr. Gross.  In reality this substantial dip in rates is being caused by the crisis in Japan.  Japan's stock market, has plunged 16% in the last couple of days and investors are taking their money out of their stock market and putting it into the safest investment they know: U.S. Treasurys.  How ironic.   

Sources: Gross Sees Trouble Ahead for Treasurys, The Oregonian, March 15, 2011; Pimco's Bet Against Treasurys Not Working (So Far), Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2011; Federal Reserve Enters Final Lap of Easing Policy, National Journal by Clifford Marks, March 15, 2011. 

A Picture's Worth a 1,000 Words

By Doug Marshall

I recently came across the following U.S. employment chart which got my attention and should get yours too. 

The chart shows U.S. employment growth by decade from 1940 through 2010.  Every decade from the 1940s through the 1990s showed positive job growth of at least 20 percent.  But the decade from 2000 to 2009 showed negative job growth.   In other words the Great Recession we are currently coming out of has wiped out all employment growth that has occurred during the past decade.  Yikes!  The chart also shows that we've had some employment growth last year and if it continues through the end of the decade at the same pace it would increase employment by 8.7%.

As revealing as that chart is, more important to us is the employment growth rate in the state of Oregon.  Does it follow the national trend or does it chart its own course?  As much as we like to pride ourselves that Oregon travels to the beat of a different drummer when it comes to employment growth over the past decade we follow the exact same drum beat as the national economy. 

Last week I had the opportunity to hear Tom Potiowsky, the State of Oregon Economist, at the Sperry Van Ness Economic Forum indicate that our current level of employment of about 1.6 million jobs is about where we were in January of 2000.  So Oregon is in the exact same situation as the national economy: no net new job growth during the past decade.  At the peak of employment, which occurred in the first quarter of 2008, Oregon had about 140,000 more jobs than it does today.  

Maybe more revealing is the following chart that compares this recession with previous recessions since World War II.  This graph shows the number of months it took for each recession to return to its peak employment.  For most recessions it took between 12 and 24 months for employment numbers to bounce back to pre-recession levels. 

Only the 1980 and 2001 recessions took longer, 86 months and 51 months respectively. The Great Recession of 2008 is currently in its 34 month and it is forecasted to rival the 1980 recession in length.

Why is this important to commercial real estate professionals?  Until the Oregon economy begins adding new jobs commercial real estate (with the exception of apartments) will be, for all intents and purposes, in the doldrums.  Employment growth fuels increases in office occupancy rates, it increases demand for industrial output and spurs retail sales.  They are all directly affected by job growth.  If Tom Pitiowsky's forecast for returning to pre-recession employment levels is accurate we have another 3 to 4 years to weather this economic storm.