John Mitchell and the Four Fairies

Last week’s blog post I referred to a presentation John Mitchell gave at the annual HFO Investor Roundtable event on January 8^th.  I specifically honed in on his comments about interest rates.  If you missed it, I would encourage to find the link to last week’s article located in the lower right hand column of this email under Recent Blog Posts and read the article. 

But there was also another part of his January 8^th presentation that I want to focus in on in today’s blog post.  Mr. Mitchell began this part of his presentation talking about his four year old granddaughter Stella who recently lost a tooth.  As Mr. Mitchell, heartily emphasized, “When your four years old losing a tooth is a big deal!”  And so it is because you get introduced to the Tooth Fairy who exchanges the tooth under the pillow for money.  When I was her age, I think the Tooth Fairy usually gave me a dime for my tooth.  I bet Stella received a whole lot more than a dime, at least I hope so. 

Mr. Mitchell then segued his discussion about the Tooth Fairy into the four fairies that many adults these days appear to believe in.  I thought his presentation was insightful, if not absolutely courageous, considering the likelihood of offending many of the people in his audience.  The four fairies are:

1.   The Free Medical Services Fairy – Think about it.  Medical services have never been and never will be free.  It takes real resources to pay for them.  Someone has to pay for them or they don’t exist. 

2.   The Entitlements Fairy – this fairy pays all the promises that our politicians have enacted through legislation down through the generations.  This fairy waves her magic wand and all entitlements are fully funded.

3.   The No New Taxes Fairy – this fairy may have died on December 31^st of last year but those who believe in this fairy believe that we are going to fix our fiscal crisis with no new taxes.  If you look at the numbers (most people don’t look at the numbers because ignorance is preferred over making informed decisions) what you find is that the sum of all federal revenues – corporate, personal, social security, tariffs, etc. there is just enough revenue to pay for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, interest on the debt and the federal retirement program.  The problem is there is another trillion dollars worth of spending that is left unfunded. 

4.   The Rich Will Pay Fairy – Again look at the numbers.  The top 1% of income earners pay 29% of all federal taxes; the top 20% pay 70% of all federal taxes.  Anyway you look at it the rich cannot fill the gigantic fiscal deficit that we have today.  I (Doug Marshall) have never understood how those who self righteously believe that the wealthy (I’m unfortunately not one of them) should “pay their fair share” think that it is perfectly okay that the bottom 47% of the population pays no federal income taxes.  Could someone explain that to me?  Whatever happened to the idea that all of us should pay our fair share of taxes proportional to our means?   

I want to end this article with two quotes which I believe are appropriate for our current fiscal situation:

“People only accept change when they are faced with necessity, and only recognize necessity when a crisis is upon them. “ Jean Monnet

“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” Herbert Stein

The fiscal path that the federal government is on is unsustainable.  Why not fix the problem while there is still time to act? 

John Mitchell’s Interest Rate Forecast

John Mitchell, a well respected economist, gave his economic update at the annual HFO Investor Roundtable event January 8^th.  It was another excellent presentation by Mr. Mitchell who has the uncanny ability of making economic forecasting interesting. 

To summarize Mr. Mitchell’s economic forecast, he believes we will continue to see an improving economy, albeit at a slow growth rate of about 2.0% annually.  Certainly this is nothing to be excited about but it’s far better than falling into recession.  

What I would like to focus my attention on today are Mr. Mitchell’s comments about where interest rates are heading over the foreseeable future.  So let’s first discuss what The Federal Reserve has been doing recently and then discuss what policies they intend to adopt going forward.     

·        From the standpoint of monetary policy, The Federal Reserve cannot push interest rates down any further.  Short term rates are near zero and they can’t go any lower than that.

·        The end of last month, The Fed’s Operation Twist was terminated.  This program manipulated the market by selling short term treasuries and purchasing long term treasuries which has resulted in driving down long term interest rates.

·        The Fed recently announced QE4.  Recall that quantitative easing is an unconventional monetary policy of buying financial assets from banks and private institutions thus injecting a quantity of money back into the economy for the purpose of stimulating economic activity.

Now let’s see what The Federal Reserve plans to do going forward.  QE4, as it is being implemented this time around, has two components: 1) the purchase of $45 billion of U.S. Treasuries a month with maturities in the 4 to 30 year range; and 2) the purchase of $40 billion a month of mortgage back securities.  Both types of purchases will keep long term interest rates artificially low. 

The Federal Reserve announced in December that they plan to keep interest rates exceptionally low as long as unemployment remains above 6.5% and inflation is no more than 2.5%.  Currently, the U.S. unemployment rate is 7.7%.  The buying of securities by The Fed is open ended until these two benchmarks are achieved.    

So the big question is: Do you think that the unemployment rate will decline significantly in 2013 or that there will be a jump in inflation this year in order for QE4 to be discontinued?  Not very likely is it?  As much as I would like to see unemployment fall below 6.5%, at the present pace of the economy we are likely two to four years away from that happening. 

Mr. Mitchell then posed a very troubling question to the audience: How will The Federal Reserve unwind QE4?  The Fed currently owns about $3 trillion in securities.  By the end of the year that number will be about $4 trillion.  Discontinuing QE4 will result in a significant “pop” in interest rates and selling the $4 trillion they currently own will further cause interest rates to rise.  Long term this looks like a gigantic problem with no easy solution.   

But back to the original question: Where can we anticipate interest rates to go this year?  It all depends on our economy.  There are two likely scenarios.

1.   If the economy continues at the current pace, then interest rates should stay where they are. 

2.   If the world economy begins to slow down at the end of this year due to the current recession in Europe and the economic slowdowns of other countries such as China, Japan and Brazil, then our economy will begin to slow down too.  If the U.S. economy were to show signs of a recession I believe The Federal Reserve will double down on its efforts to keep the economy going.  If true they would buy more securities which means interest rates would go down even lower than they are today.       

I believe there is no chance that rates will go up this year as long as QE4 is being implemented.  In fact I will go out on a limb and say I believe the second scenario is the more likely.  If true, then interest rates a year from now will be lower than they are today.   

Either scenario bodes well for commercial real estate.  Keeping interest rates low will continue the current trend of rising real estate values in the Pacific Northwest. 

Three Business Principles Steve Jobs Lived By

I had the opportunity over the Christmas holiday to read the excellent biography of Steve Jobs by Walter Isaacson.  Mr. Isaacson does not sugarcoat Mr. Jobs’s personality.  Steve Jobs would have been an awful person to work for as he could either profusely praise his employees or call them a piece of sh**, sometimes on the very same day.  To say the least, Jobs was a very difficult person to be around.      

That said, 100 years from now I believe he will be remembered as one of the great men of our era, held in the same high esteem as Henry Ford, Alexander Graham Bell and Thomas Edison. 

So what can we learn from Steve Jobs?  What made him unique?  What made him highly successful? There were many traits that made him successful, far too many to list in a short blog post, but I would like to mention three:

1.   He had an absolute passion for his work.  It was never about getting rich; it was all about making something he believed in.  He passionately believed in the Macintosh computer, the iPod, the iPhone, and the iPad to name just a few of the products Apple developed.  A recent survey indicated that 80% of Americans are not passionate about ANYTHING!  What are you passionate about?  Are you passionate about your work?  Do you find excuses to work late or come in over the weekend because what you do excites you?  Or do you even know what passion feels like? 

2.   He had an obsessive attention to detail.  There was a book written a few years back titled, “Don’t Sweat the Small Stuff… and It’s All Small Stuff.”  Jobs would have vomited his scorn on the author of that book.  Jobs was all about the small stuff.  “Good enough” was never good enough for Jobs.  Jobs was all about hiring the most gifted people he could find and then working them to their extreme limit.  Conversely he would also not hesitate to ridicule and quickly fire those who did not meet his high standards. He pushed and prodded his talented minions to perform at higher levels than they thought possible resulting in many technological breakthroughs that Apple is now known for.  He was absolutely ruthless on his employees but afterward they grudgingly loved and worshiped him for it.  How often do you settle for results that are less than your very, absolute best?     

3.   He was a “value creator.” He didn’t invent many things outright, but he was a master at putting together ideas, art and technology in ways that superseded what had come before.  Jobs once said, “Picasso had a saying, “Good artists copy, great artists steal” and we have always been shameless about stealing great ideas.”  Regardless of what we do for a living, our job boils down to adding value in the form of a product or service, for either our boss, if we have one, or our clients who are our ultimate bosses.  When we stop adding value, watch out, we’re expendable!  What can you do today to add additional value to your work so that your boss or client without hesitation realizes your importance in making them more successful?

I have heard people say, “Well I’m not Steve Jobs.”  Or they might insert another celebrity entrepreneur in that statement, like Richard Branson or Donald Trump.  Deep down what they are saying is that they don’t have the courage to try to be exceptional.  And I ask, “Why not?”  Being average is certainly not the road to success.  Yes, it is highly unlikely that we will ever be remotely as successful as Steve Jobs but should that stop us from living by the business principles that led to his great success?  I think not.     

My Crystal Ball Forecast for 2013

Forecasting reminds me of the quote attributed to one of our most famous philosophers of the 21^st century, Yogi Berra.  He said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”  But it’s that time of year when we all want to know what the new year is going to bring.  Specifically those of us in commercial real estate want to know, “How is commercial real estate going to do in the Pacific Northwest in 2013?” 

Well you’ve come to the right place because I’m bullish about the immediate future of commercial real estate.  Interest rates should remain low throughout 2013.  Commercial real estate should continue its upward trend out of our plunge into the abyss caused by the Great Recession of 2008.  Four years ago we were in a free fall, similar to a skydiver who waits as long as possible before he pulls the ripcord that opens his parachute.  It looked bleak.  Let me correct myself.  It was bleak.  But in 2010 we bottomed out and 2011 showed a modest improvement.  Last year was even better and there is no reason to believe this trend won’t continue into 2013.  

However there are three caveats to this prediction.  As James Carville once said, “It’s the economy stupid.”  And sure enough how well we do in 2013 assumes that the economy continues to grow at the modest pace that it has grown for the past few years.  If not, then all bets are off.  There are three things that could derail our economy. 

1.  The Slow Down of the World Economy 

Even though 70% of our economy is derived from domestic spending, the United States is not immune to what happens in the rest of the world.   And what is happening in the rest of the world?  Europe is in recession and the economies of other countries are slowing down.   This means that there will be less demand for our exports, which means our economy will begin to feel the affect.  However, I don’t believe that during 2013 we will feel the brunt of this slowdown to any real degree.   If the slowdown continues into 2014 and beyond then it is likely that it will slow our economy, maybe throwing us into recession as well but not this coming year.  

2.  Europe Muddles Through 

As I’ve discussed on several occasions, Europe’s sovereign debt crisis is not going to end well.  There is no satisfactory solution to their problem.  The only question is when, not if, it will implode.  The Europeans have been doing an excellent job kicking the can down the road these past few years and I’m guessing they will be able to further kick the can down the road through 2013.  If they can there will be little negative consequence this coming year to their sovereign debt crisis on the American economy. 

3.  Fiscal Cliff Outcome 

As of the time of my writing this blog post the Senate has just passed a bill to avoid the fiscal cliff but it has yet to be voted on by the House.  It’s hard to tell if this version will be acceptable to House Republicans.   At some point there will be an agreement, either this bill or one modified slightly to accommodate the House Republicans.  But let me let you in on a little secret, actually a big secret: It makes no difference which side wins the budget negotiation.  What both sides are proposing is equivalent to arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  They are haggling over nuance differences over how to raise tax revenues with almost no proposed spending cuts.  The proposed bill will raise about $1 trillion over 10 years.  That’s equal to $100 billion annually, which is an insignificant amount when compared to what is needed to right our fiscal ship.  So instead of having annual deficits of $1.2 trillion, we will have going forward $1.1 trillion in annual deficits.  So in ten years the total U.S. debt will go from $16 trillion to $27 trillion.  Sadly, no one in Washington has the courage to put our fiscal house in order.  Not the president, not the Republicans.  

Now the real question for 2013 is whether or not the stock market and the credit agencies perceive this miserable attempt at political theatrics as the sham that it is.  If not, then it will have no adverse impact on our economy.   If they do, the stock market will start to decline, possibly precipitously, and the credit agencies, such as Standard & Poors, may be forced to further downgrade the credit rating of our country.  That’s the potential fallout from the Fiscal Cliff.   Stay tuned.

If we can avoid these three pitfalls from happening in 2013, then our economy should continue to grow.  And with a growing economy commercial real estate in the Pacific Northwest should do quite well this coming year.   But the bigger issue is finding people on both sides of the aisle who have the political courage to get us out of our fiscal mess.