Maybe The Sky Is Not Falling

Portland State University Center for Real Estate recently completed its 1st Quarter 2009 real estate market analysis.

This very well written and researched report is an extensive review of the major property types primarily focused on the Portland MSA, but also other cities throughout the region. Shown below are some of the highlights:

Overall Real Estate Market

• Grubb & Ellis ranks Portland in the top 10 cities out of 60 for current real estate investment.

Office

• Portland’s office market is ranked second in the nation behind Washington, DC, for market strength (forecast through 2013).
• The overall office vacancy rate for Portland is 12.2%, with downtown CBD at a surprisingly low 7.6%.
• Overall there was net absorption of office space for the Portland market for 2008.

Industrial

• The overall vacancy rate for industrial properties was at 6.6% at the end of the Q4, 2008.
• New construction outpaced absorption for the first time since 2003 – 2.7 million SF of new construction, as compared to 1.3 million SF absorbed.
• Asking rental rates are holding steady.

Multifamily

• Norris, Beggs & Simpson reports a 4.7% vacancy rate for apartments.
• Apartments rents have increased about 6% annually for the past 3 years.
• Capitalization rates have leveled and are predicted to rise in 2009.

Single-Family Housing

• Although the median sales price of detached homes has declined by 8% in 2008, they are still 16% above their 2005 pre-bubble values.


• The number of sales has declined 41.0% from the previous year.

In essence, real estate in the Portland MSA seems to be doing better (or lagging behind in loss) than most other urban centers.

This brings a wary hope to those of us working here on both the commercial and residential side of the industry. Cautious optimism is the name of the game and all of us can do with a dose of that.

On a lighter note, we’ve found the perfect YouTube video for our days and times. In a masterful voice-over of a German-language film (“Der Untergang”, “Downfall”), watch Hitler (now the dupe of a real estate broker and NAR) lose his home, his Camaro, and his flatscreen TV.

CNBC's "House Of Cards" Tumbles

You don’t want to miss a very informative and well-produced documentary that is scheduled to air on February 25th at 5:00 p.m. and again on March 1st at 9:00 p.m., on CNBC, called House of Cards. (Check your CNBC TV listings, to make sure.)

In this piece, award-winning anchor/reporter David Faber takes the public into the back rooms of lending institutions and Wall Street firms that created, through unscrupulous and unprecedented loan-making and credit forgery, the economic collapse we’re now experiencing.

According to TV reporter Ray Richmond, this is a “balanced, clear-eyed approach to chronicle a tale of greed and deception unprecedented in American history.”

It has a horror-film feel to it and brings the demons of our descent into the light: the bait-and-switch tactics, the snake-oil salesmen, the blind denial of the “experts” all put on public display.

Faber also conducts probing interviews of several people who had a hand in the making of sub-prime massed loans, creators of forged credit documents, and public officials who were unable to stop it all.

This is a maddening account of how the snowball became a ticking time bomb and why no one listened to the council of the wise about what was coming.

Watch this program, but have a glass of wine ready - maybe a whole bottle. Unfortunately it’s true that we need to absorb cautionary accounts like this for “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” George Santayana

How To Survive The Economic Meltdown (Part Three of Three)

by Doug Marshall, CCIM
Musings On The Market

In this series’ first installment, I discussed getting back to basics, staying absolutely focused on the task at hand, and differentiating yourself from your competitors.

Click here to read Part 1, if you missed it.

Part 2 continued by discussing how to remain 110% committed to your career, the value of redefining yourself - sometimes a good move in a bad economy, and the importance of keeping a positive attitude.

Click here to read Part 2.

This is the final installment to this series…


Deep-Six What Doesn’t Work
Albert Einstein once said “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results”. Years ago I was employed at a company where the fee split was such that I was barely hanging on.

I had worked there for several years and I kept asking myself why I thought that my compensation the next year would be any better than it had been so far? After months of struggling with this question, I knew that I had to move on. I had to leave my comfort zone and take some calculated risks.

Have you been doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results? Is there some way of marketing yourself that is no longer effective but you’re still doing it anyway? Are you working for a company that does not have the vision to succeed in this economy which will ultimately take you down with them?

A bad economy can sometimes be a blessing in disguise. It can force you to make those decisions that you’ve known in the back of your mind had to be made, though you were unwilling to make them, being comfortable with the status quo.

If you’re like most people in sales these days you are no longer financially comfortable, as sales have dramatically dwindled and profits have disappeared altogether. Like many others, you are beginning to feel the pinch in your wallet. So what changes do you need to make in order to survive?


Don’t Give Up
In his book, Good to Great, Jim Collins refers to the Stockdale Paradox, named after Vice Admiral James Stockdale. Stockdale is one of the most highly decorated officers in the history of the United States Navy. In 1965, he led aerial attacks from the carrier USS Ticonderoga.

His plane was shot down over enemy territory, he was captured, and he spent years in a North Vietnamese prison. While in prison he encouraged his men to retain their absolute faith that they would prevail in the end regardless of their difficulties AND at the same time to confront the most brutal facts of their current reality.

Do the same thing:

• Retain absolute faith that you can and will prevail in the end, regardless of the difficulties you face.


• At the same time confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.

In his classic book, The Greatest Salesman in the World, Og Mandino spoke eloquently about the importance of persisting through adversity.

His book tells the story of Hafid, a poor camel boy who longs to learn the secrets of salesmanship. One of the ten secret scrolls reveals to him that to succeed in life requires the character quality of perseverance. The scroll states,

“I was not delivered into this world in defeat, nor does failure course through my veins. I am not a sheep waiting to be led to the slaughter. I am a lion and I refuse to talk, to walk, to sleep with the sheep.”

When all else fails, that attitude can carry one through many, many difficult times. Don’t give up, no matter what.

This has, of course, been a recounting of my personal journey. I have found that there are no stories or examples that resonate so well as those born of one’s own experience. I am grateful for the chances I’ve had and hope that you can benefit by these ideas and concepts that I’ve garnered over the years. Many are mine… many more are not. But then, we all stand on the shoulders of someone.

In summary, there is an old African proverb that may say it best:

Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up.
It knows it must run faster than the fastest lion or it will be killed.
Every morning a lion wakes up.
It knows it must outrun the slowest gazelle or it will starve to death.
It doesn’t matter whether you are a lion or a gazelle.
When the sun comes up, you better start running.

We need to have the same attitude as the lion and the gazelle – let’s run as hard as we can so as not to become the economy’s next victim. To do so will likely require that we conduct our business differently than times past as doing “business as usual” will not work in today’s faltering economy.

Improve your chances of still being around when the economy rebounds by adopting the business principle that’s been presented that is most appropriate to your specific situation.

I wish you the best in 2009. I am confident that weathering this economic perfect storm will prove us more resilient than we could ever have thought or imagined.

How To Survive The Economic Meltdown (Part Two of Three)

Doug Marshall, CCIM
Musings On The Market

In my previous installment, I discussed getting back to basics, staying absolutely focused on the task at hand, and differentiating yourself from your competitors. See the previous post to read Part 1, if you missed it.

Be 110% Committed To Your Career
I had a friend, years ago, when I was first starting out as a commercial mortgage broker. We both were struggling to pay the bills and at that point in our careers we were wondering if we were going to make it or not.

I remember him saying that if this did not work out he had another lucrative opportunity with a newly established dot-com company. He asked me what my plans were if I didn’t succeed at being a commercial mortgage broker. I told him I had no other plans.

My choice was to succeed as a commercial mortgage broker or fail miserably and utterly. There was no other alternative. Because I knew the consequences of failure I eventually succeeded.

It was a difficult struggle and took years to be successful but giving up was not an option for me. On the other hand, my friend was out of the business within a year and the opportunity with the dot-com company never materialized.

The lesson to be learned is this: It is very difficult to succeed in any profession or any endeavor if you are not 100% committed to it. In today’s economy that principle is truer than ever.

Some may view having another job waiting in the wings as a prudent safety net should their current job not pan out. In reality, it’s a recipe for failure.

If Necessary, Redefine Yourself
Sometimes after you go through the self-assessment process you realize you’re not the problem, the market is. No matter how good you may be at differentiating yourself from your competition, there may not be enough remaining market share left to make a living, no matter how good you are at your profession.

If that is true for you, redefine yourself by finding a new market niche within your profession.

Recently, a friend of mine was meeting with someone who is in the residential mortgage market. As you know, this market has been devastated. Employment in this sector of the economy has declined over 80% in the past year or so.

But this person, who is in this profession, is surviving. How so? He has moved away from doing exclusively residential mortgages to focusing on reverse mortgages for seniors, currently a lucrative market.

With every change in the economy there are winners and losers. Find those clients who are in the most financial pain resulting from the poor economy. They are the ones in need of assistance and they are motivated to make changes in their current situations.

Then find a market niche that helps those who are in financial distress. You will be doing them a service while making a living until the market changes again. As Jerry Mason of Westland Apartment Brokers says so aptly, “Follow the pain.”

Stay Positive!
Having a positive attitude, to me, is by far the single most important thing to focus on during difficult times. Here are some suggestions for staying positive when the business is hurting:

Avoid negative people
We all know who they are. Sometimes these negative people are unaware of the harmful impact they have on those around them. Avoid them at all costs and, if you cannot avoid them, tell them you don’t want to hear it.

Quit watching the news
Yes, a lot bad things are happening right now. Each day, some new calamitous event happens that makes our economy that much worse. But it’s also important to realize that those in the news business are there to make headlines so that they have an audience.

How much of what we hear is overstated or incorrectly stated by the news media in order to create headlines and increase their own market share?

Don’t go it alone
Find someone, or maybe more than one person, with whom you can share your deepest fears, someone who will lift your spirits when things aren’t going well, and someone who can celebrate with you when you succeed.

Solomon once said, “There is a friend that is closer than a brother.” Find that person. Don’t be a Lone Ranger.

End, part two